After defeat to Sri Lanka, can England still qualify for the WTC Final?

Sri Lanka achieved a historic eight-wicket win over England at The Oval, marking their first Test victory against the hosts in ten years. Although they lost the three-match series 1-2, the win in the final match has propelled Sri Lanka to fifth place in the World Test Championship (WTC) standings. This win not only ended Sri Lanka's long-standing drought against England but also delivered a major setback to England's chances of qualifying for the 2025 WTC final.

England's Path To WTC Final becomes difficult

England, led by stand-in skipper Ollie Pope in this match, had been riding high on a strong home season, which included a 3-0 series sweep over the West Indies and two commanding victories against Sri Lanka in the first two Tests. However, the Sri Lankan side bounced back emphatically in the third Test and defeated England at home. 

Following the defeat, England's points percentage fell to 42.19%, leaving them in sixth place in the WTC standings. Sri Lanka, just ahead, now boasts a points percentage of 42.86% and has climbed to fifth position.

England's prospects for reaching the WTC final now look challenging, given their earlier losses to Australia and India, which have left them with minimal room for error in the remaining fixtures of the 2023-25 cycle.

Currently, India leads with a points percentage of 68.52%, while Australia stands at 62.50%, both comfortably ahead of England. Even if India were to lose all five of their remaining Tests in Australia but win their five home matches, they would still finish above England.

For England to surpass India, the Rohit Sharma-led side would need to lose at least six of their remaining ten fixtures.

Australia, on the other hand, have seven matches remaining, including two Tests on an away tour to Sri Lanka and a vital home series against India. If Australia win four of these matches, they will be assured of finishing ahead of England in the WTC standings.

England’s route to the WTC final appears very tough, as they will need to secure a flawless performance while hoping for favorable outcomes in other matches.