Border Gavaskar Trophy: Can India still make the WTC Final?

Though a bit later than expected, India faced the true wrath of the home giants in the second Test of the Border Gavaskar Trophy. India commenced the five-match series Down Under with a thumping 295-run victory at Perth. However, their win didn’t overshadow the challenges posed by the Kangaroos with the pink ball. As the series progressed, India was scheduled to face the dreaded day-night fixture early in the contest. When the second BGT fixture unfolded under the lights, it became evident why Australia holds the reputation of ruling Adelaide with the pink ball and why India’s inhibitions stood tall despite their opening victory in the series.

India's WTC Final qualification chances take a major hit after the Adelaide Test defeat

Ahead of the start of the India vs Australia series Down Under, a 5-0 victory over the hosts seemed like a distant dream, further compounded by the fact that India had just suffered a whitewash at home. However, the team, playing without skipper Rohit Sharma and top-order mainstay Shubman Gill, delivered an incredibly impressive performance to stun the Aussies. India’s interim captain Jasprit Bumrah dismantled the Kangaroos’ batting order as KL Rahul and Yashasvi Jaiswal sealed the deal at Perth. The 295-run victory with a makeshift team bolstered hopes for a series victory and, subsequently, WTC Final qualification.

However, a reality check quickly followed for the visitors as the pink-ball Test loomed. Rohit Sharma joined the team for the second Test but batted in the middle order, keeping the winning combination of KL Rahul and Yashasvi Jaiswal intact at the top. Moreover, Shubman Gill reclaimed the No. 3 position after successfully recovering from his thumb injury. Despite these positives, India couldn’t evade the fate that awaited them at Adelaide.

The batting lineup crumbled under pressure as Mitchell Starc, the pink-ball maestro, registered his career-best figures of 6/48 in the opening innings. With no redemption in sight, the day-night Test of the Border Gavaskar Trophy concluded in just over two days. Travis Head unleashed a stunning onslaught against India with a century, while skipper Pat Cummins bagged another five-wicket haul against the visitors. With merely 19 runs to defend on the third day, India succumbed to a 10-wicket defeat, as Australia levelled the BGT series 1-1. While the visitors can still defend their trophy, their chances of qualifying for the WTC Final have suffered a significant blow.

How can India still qualify with 3 matches remaining in Border Gavaskar Trophy?

The Adelaide Test marked India’s fourth defeat in just two months. Following the 0-3 series whitewash against New Zealand at home, India had slipped to second place in the WTC Standings. However, their massive 295-run victory in the Perth Test helped the visitors dethrone Australia and reclaim the top spot with a 61.11 PCT in the WTC rankings. As competition intensifies, the primary battle for qualification now lies between Australia, India, and South Africa.

After their 10-wicket win over India in the Adelaide Test, Australia saw their PCT rise from 57.69 to 60.71. Meanwhile, India dropped from 61.11 to 57.29, sliding to third place behind South Africa. Moving forward, India has only three fixtures left in the Border Gavaskar Trophy to cement their place in the WTC Final. Australia, on the other hand, still has a two-match series against Sri Lanka to play. Currently sitting in second place with a 59.26 PCT, South Africa is in a favorable position to claim first place if they win their second Test against Sri Lanka at Gqeberha.

India, meanwhile, must win all their remaining fixtures to avoid relying on other teams for qualification. A 4-1 series result in the Border Gavaskar Trophy would earn them 146 points and a favorable 64.05 PCT. This 64 PCT mark is unattainable for Australia, regardless of their results against Sri Lanka following the BGT.

If Australia secures one victory while India wins the other two, bringing the BGT scoreline to 3-2, the visitors will accumulate 134 points with a PCT of 58.77. Should Australia win both matches against Sri Lanka, their maximum tally would be 126 points and a PCT of 55.26. Meanwhile, South Africa can achieve a PCT of 69.44 if they win all their remaining home games against Sri Lanka and Pakistan.

If the Border Gavaskar Trophy result ends at 2-2 with one draw, India can still compete for a spot in the WTC Final. For India, two wins and a draw from their remaining matches would bring them to 138 points with a PCT of 60.52. Even if Australia wins against Sri Lanka, they would only reach a 57 PCT, eliminating themselves from contention. However, if India records one loss, one draw, and one win in their final three Tests, they would finish with 126 points and a PCT of 57.01, allowing Australia, with 130 points, to surpass them and end India’s chances.