Can England still qualify for the WTC Finals with skipper Ben Stokes injured?

As Test cricket takes the front seat with the WTC Finals approaching fast, Ben Stokes has picked up a serious injury. Ever since Stokes claimed the Test captaincy from Joe Root in 2022, he has become the most important player for the team. The English Test team grabbed attention when the Stokes-McCullum duo took over the reins of the 'down under' side. The captain-coach pair kicked off the ‘Bazball’ era, promising the dawn of a successful tenure for the England team in the longest format of the game. However, the team is yet to play a WTC Final, which ironically unfolds in England every season. Now, with the WTC dreams still out of England’s reach, can Ben Stokes turn things around upon his return in the home series against Pakistan?

A look at Ben Stokes as the England Test Captain

Stokes took over the English Test captaincy in 2022 after Joe Root resigned from the position following a series of horrible defeats. Stokes then worked alongside Brendon McCullum to position England among the top players in the format again. Now that Stokes has completed over 25 Tests as captain, the all-rounder has registered an unmatched win percentage. While Root’s captaincy tenure ended in utter disappointment, Stokes has fared better than Alastair Cook. Moreover, statistically, Stokes, with a 48.00% win percentage, has surpassed Andrew Strauss. However, in stark contrast to these statistics, England is yet to register a notable victory under Ben Stokes.

The team currently stands in 7th position in the WTC standings, even lower than the likes of Pakistan and their current opposition, Sri Lanka. While England’s ranking took a hit due to the 14-point penalty for maintaining a slow over-rate, the team’s performances in away series are a growing concern. England started 2024 with a 4-1 defeat against India, who are currently placed second in the WTC rankings. As for Stokes, he has secured 17 wins in the 27 matches he has captained, while witnessing 8 defeats. Five out of those 8 losses have hit England during their away tours.

What are England's chances to qualify for the WTC Final?

Statistically, England has a 36.5% chance of qualifying for the WTC Finals scheduled for June 2025 at Lord’s. Practically, England is miles away from attaining that dream. With Ben Stokes enduring a hamstring tear, the team is currently playing against Sri Lanka at home under the captaincy of Ollie Pope. Ollie Pope is new to the leadership position, having captained in only one match in his first-class career. The top-order batter, however, has been consistent in the vice-captaincy role under Stokes since last summer.

As apparent from his role in the English side, Stokes and McCullum have been grooming Pope for this responsibility for a while now. Now, Pope needs to find his rhythm as the England Test captain in the three matches against Sri Lanka. With the first match underway, Pope’s England has managed to limit Sri Lanka to a score of 236 in the first innings at Old Trafford. While the team looks poised to win the home fixtures, the upcoming lineup for England includes 2 series before the WTC Finals, both of which are scheduled to be played away.

How can Ben Stokes lead England to the WTC Finals?

Ben Stokes is eyeing a return for England’s Tour of Pakistan, scheduled for October. Pakistan is currently playing Bangladesh at home and can prove formidable against England in home conditions. Following that, England is lined up for a 3-match Test series against New Zealand, where the Ben Stokes-led team will play as guests to the Kiwis. Even if England manages to win all their 9 matches against Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and New Zealand, they will need to rely on Australia and India to have a say in the final WTC standings.

India’s upcoming Test fixtures include a home series against Bangladesh and New Zealand. Moreover, the Men in Blue will engage in the all-important Border Gavaskar Trophy against the No. 1 ranked Australia in December. For England to improve their rank in the WTC standings, India needs to lose their home fixtures, which currently appears to be a far-fetched dream for England.

A better aim for England will be to displace Australia from the top spot. Australia has just the Border-Gavaskar Trophy left to play before the WTC Finals in June. While the BGT is scheduled at home for the Kangaroos this time, it’s been almost a decade since they last won the tournament against India. The Indian Test team has beaten the Kangaroos in their previous two conquests in Australia.

Thus, if India manages to repeat their dominance over Australia in December, it could pave the way for England to claim a berth in the WTC Finals. That, however, still depends on England’s chances to win their own fixtures. Moreover, the return of Ben Stokes will be crucial in determining the team’s contention for the ICC event. Currently, the English team is playing against Sri Lanka without the likes of Stokes and Zak Crawley due to injury concerns.