Can India still qualify for the WTC Final through the Border Gavaskar Trophy?

The India vs New Zealand Test series has dealt multiple blows to Team India, from damaging their reputation to jeopardizing their chances of qualifying for the WTC Final. The team suffered their first-ever series whitewash in home Tests as the Kiwis clinched a 3-0 victory on their India tour. This unprecedented setback has significantly reduced India’s chances of making it to the upcoming WTC Final. Once a favorite to qualify for the ICC event, India now faces the risk of missing out on the final proceedings in England. The defeat at home has also put immense pressure on the upcoming Border Gavaskar Trophy in Australia.

New Zealand’s series win over India set multiple historic records. This marked New Zealand’s first-ever Test series victory in India since their tours began in 1955-56. The Kiwis also became the only team to secure a 3-0 series sweep on Indian soil. Beyond the historic implications of the series, the whitewash has cast a shadow on India’s campaign in the ongoing WTC cycle. Only five Tests remain for India in the current cycle, all part of the Border Gavaskar Trophy, slated to start on November 22 in Perth. To have a chance of featuring in the WTC Final, India must secure a commanding win over the Australians on their home turf.

How can India qualify for the WTC Final?

Prior to this series, India topped the WTC standings with a points percentage (PCT) of 68.06. However, after losing the first two matches, their PCT fell to 62.82, closely trailed by Australia at 62.50 and Sri Lanka at 55.56. Following the unfortunate whitewash, India’s PCT dipped further to 58.33, placing them second in the WTC standings behind Australia. From here, India faces a steep climb to keep their hopes of playing at Lord’s alive. Simply put, India must secure a 4-0 win over Australia down under to maintain their place in the top two of the WTC standings.

Achieving four wins and a draw against Australia would elevate India’s PCT to 65.79%, positioning them ahead of New Zealand. The Kiwis, after their series whitewash over India, can attain a maximum possible PCT of 64.29%. For New Zealand to achieve this, they need to beat England 3-0 at home. However, New Zealand would not be able to surpass India in the WTC standings if the visitors claim four wins over Australia in the Border-Gavaskar series.

With these outcomes, India would likely remain at least second in the standings, with South Africa capable of reaching a maximum of 69.44% if they win 2-0 against both Sri Lanka and Pakistan at home. However, these scenarios depend on other teams maximizing their points. If any of them falter in even one of their remaining clashes, India might still qualify with a lower PCT. If the next four series unfold as outlined above, Australia would lead at 58.77%, while India’s 53.51% would be sufficient for second place, staying ahead of South Africa, New Zealand, and Sri Lanka. Thus, India may not need a full sweep if other results are favorable. However, to avoid relying on other teams, India would need to secure a 4-0 sweep over the Australians.

Meanwhile, India’s current form in red-ball cricket doesn’t inspire confidence in their WTC Final chances. The team’s senior-most players, like skipper Rohit Sharma and Virat Kohli, are yet to recover their batting form. Moreover, the pace department appears rather unseasoned, with the absence of Mohammed Shami and Siraj displaying a weaker performance in the format. India has announced an 18-member squad for the Australia tour, including young pace options like Harshit Rana and Nitish Kumar Reddy. It remains to be seen if India can defend the Border Gavaskar Trophy down under, let alone achieve their goal of clinching a 4-0 record against the reigning WTC champions.