ICC Champions Trophy: Can Pakistan still qualify for the semi-final?

"We can say that it's over. That is the truth." Mohammad Rizwan wrapped it up in a short statement after Pakistan lost its second match in the ICC Champions Trophy 2025. Two matches and two defeats, both by a fair margin, and the hosts are now the first ones to be considered ruled out of the tournament. While anticipated, the turnout of events is rather harsh for the hosts, who were defending their title at the Champions Trophy. So, does the 6-wicket defeat in the India vs Pakistan clash shut Pakistan's case for semi-final qualification altogether? Or is there a chance, even if the slightest, left for the defending champions to count on as they return home for their last group stage match against Bangladesh?

Is Pakistan the first team to be ruled out of the ICC Champions Trophy?

The start of the ICC Champions Trophy was highlighted by Pakistan losing to New Zealand for the third time within a week. Hosting an ODI tri-series as a prelude to the ICC tournament, Pakistan lost the title to New Zealand. The Kiwis then opened the Champions Trophy against Pakistan on 19 February in Karachi, where they toppled the hosts by 60 runs. The marquee event is a short series, with each team facing the others in the group only once. Even a single defeat is enough to derail a team's campaign. Pakistan faced the same fate after the Kiwis started their campaign with a commanding victory.

However, hope was still alive for the defending champions, who geared up for the India vs Pakistan clash in Dubai. Meanwhile, India won their campaign opener against Bangladesh, matching New Zealand as the favorite to qualify for the semi-final. A defeat against India was enough to push Pakistan straight out of the tournament. The anticipated result emerged true as India easily overpowered the hosts in their clash. A fine bowling performance, which saw the spin department triggering a collapse in the Pakistani batting lineup, restricted the total to 241. Then came Virat Kohli, the chase master, who laced the encounter with a sublime ton, his 82nd international century.

Pakistan is clearly falling short in many departments, including hapless bowling and a faltering batting order without Fakhar Zaman and Saim Ayub. The loopholes in the Pakistani team and their performance have nearly ruled them out of the ICC Champions Trophy 2025, a tournament that gave them a chance to host an ICC event after over three decades. "Nearly," because mathematically, the defending champions can still have a go at the semi-final, only if the puzzle fits perfectly from here on. However, not much rests in their own hands, as Pakistan now sits hopeful for mercy from other teams in Group A.

How can Pakistan still qualify for the ICC Champions Trophy semi-final?

There are three matches remaining for Group A at the league stage now. Pakistan has just one left against Bangladesh. Meanwhile, New Zealand next plays Bangladesh in Rawalpindi before they meet the unbeaten India in Dubai for the last group stage fixture on 2 March. Bangladesh, meanwhile, first meets New Zealand before Pakistan has a go at their last remaining hope for the semi-final.

Now, for Pakistan to qualify for the semi-final, the hosts need Bangladesh to beat New Zealand in the encounter scheduled for 24 February. Bangladesh endured a 6-wicket defeat against India in their tournament opener. Meanwhile, from the looks of it, New Zealand appears to be the favorite to emerge victorious in the fixture. However, Pakistan would hope for an upset if they want to remain in the qualification race.

Moreover, New Zealand then also needs to lose their last group stage encounter against India. Poised as a thrilling encounter, India vs New Zealand is the battle of equals. With New Zealand losing both of their remaining fixtures, Pakistan can eye claiming the second semi-final spot in Group A. What is left in their hands to control is their match-up against Bangladesh. The defending champions are required to beat their neighbors, and do so while ensuring a high net run rate. Pakistan's victory over Bangladesh needs to outweigh the margin of their loss to New Zealand. If these three conditions, almost a miracle, surprisingly line up seamlessly, then Pakistan can join India as the ICC Champions Trophy semi-final contender from Group A.