ICC Women's T20 World Cup: Can India Women qualify for the semi-finals?

India women have endured a lukewarm campaign so far at the ICC Women’s T20 World Cup. The women in blue suffered a heavy defeat in their campaign opener against New Zealand. Subsequently, their net run rate took a significant hit in the very first match, leaving their campaign in jeopardy. However, the team bounced back in their second clash as they faced arch-rivals Pakistan at Dubai International Stadium. While India women are back to winning ways in the marquee event, they need to pull off momentous victories in their remaining fixtures to secure a berth in the T20 World Cup semi-finals.

India Women in the 2024 ICC Women's T20 World Cup so far

Unlike the 2024 Men’s T20 World Cup, the ICC Women’s T20 World Cup still features only 10 teams. These 10 teams are divided into two groups, with each team facing its group members once in the league stage. The teams are ranked based on points earned from their wins. Subsequently, the top two teams from each group will advance to the semi-finals. In cases where two teams have the same number of points, the top ranker is determined based on net run rate.

India Women faced New Zealand women with high hopes of starting the tournament with a win. The expectation was based on the fact that the Kiwis were coming into the ICC event on the back of a 10-match losing streak in T20Is. However, the White Ferns, led by Sophie Devine, thrashed India women to secure a win by 58 runs. Consequently, India found themselves at the bottom of their group, with a negative NRR after their campaign opener.

With a loss in their first match, the stakes were higher for the India vs Pakistan clash. Pakistan women entered the contest against India after registering a comfortable win over Sri Lanka in their opening fixture. While India not only had the task of denying a victory to their arch-rivals, they also needed a significant win to stay alive in the tournament.

Can India qualify for the T20 World Cup semi-finals after the victory against Pakistan women?

India has historically dominated Pakistan in Women's T20 World Cup encounters, emerging victorious in six of their eight previous meetings. In their latest showdown in Dubai, Pakistan women opted to bat first after winning the toss. However, they struggled against India’s disciplined bowling attack, managing just 105 runs in their allotted 20 overs. Arundhati Reddy was the standout bowler for India, claiming three wickets while conceding only 18 runs.

On the batting front, Jemimah Rodrigues and Harmanpreet Kaur spearheaded India’s chase, with Rodrigues scoring 23 off 28 balls and Kaur adding 29 off 24, securing India’s first win in the ongoing ICC Women's T20 World Cup. Shafali Verma also played a crucial cameo, scoring 32 off 35 balls to set the tone for India’s win. However, finishing the match in the penultimate over of the chase, India women couldn’t improve their net run rate as much as they had hoped.

With two matches completed, India women will now face Sri Lanka women and defending champions Australia in their remaining group stage fixtures. India’s last match before the T20 World Cup was the Asia Cup final, which they lost to Sri Lanka. With two points from two games, India currently has a Net Run Rate (NRR) of -1.217. The first step toward semi-final qualification is to win their remaining matches. Additionally, India women need to ensure that these victories come with significant margins to keep their NRR competitive.

Looking ahead, India’s qualification chances will also depend on how other teams in Group A perform in their upcoming fixtures. If Pakistan women win just one of their remaining two matches against Australia and New Zealand, India will gain an advantage. Furthermore, if New Zealand defeats Australia, India will still have a shot at reaching the semi-finals with a maximum of six points. However, in such a scenario, India’s progression will heavily rely on their net run rate, an area they must focus on improving in their upcoming games.