India Women relying on New Zealand Women for WT20 WC semi-finals qualification?

Team India’s campaign at the ICC Women’s World Cup landed in a puddle right at the start of the tournament. With a pool of ten teams competing for the ultimate glory this year, India was placed in Group A, titled the ‘Group of Death’. India’s group has defending champions Australia Women along with New Zealand Women, Sri Lanka Women, and Pakistan Women. Coming to the tournament, India women were the favourites to claim the trophy. However, the women in blue were handed a 58-run defeat at the hands of New Zealand women. Now, despite the win against Pakistan women, India’s qualification scenario relies heavily on the performance of other teams in their group.

India women at the ICC Women's T20 World Cup

Coming to the ICC event, India women hoped to clinch a win against New Zealand women in the season opener. The hopes were backed by the fact that the white ferns were coming to the clash with a 10-match losing streak in the format. However, the Kiwis struck form in the clash that mattered as they thrashed India by a margin of 58-runs. The heavy defeat laid a significant impact on India’s NRR. Facing Pakistan Women in the next clash, India managed a win against their arch-rivals. However, the win did not help with the net run rate much. Currently, with two clashes remaining India has accumulated 2 points with a net run rate of -1.217.

Winning their remaining fixtures at the league stage is the minimum effort required from India women. However, even if India wins all their remaining group stage games, their qualification for the knockouts is still uncertain due to their poor net run rate which is currently running negative. This low NRR puts them in a precarious position, as qualification isn't entirely in their hands from this point ahead.

How would Australia women vs New Zealand women match impact India's qualification chances?

Australia and New Zealand have been dominant in the tournament, with NRRs of +1.908 and +2.900, respectively. Now, for a say in semi-final qualifications, India needs to rely on New Zealand women. For India's qualification hopes to get a significant boost, New Zealand would need to continue their winning run, including defeating Australia. If the Kiwis win all their group matches, they would top the group with four wins, ensuring their place in the knockout stage.

With New Zealand out of the way, India's chances would improve as they could secure three wins out of four games by defeating Australia. However, if Australia defeats New Zealand, India's path to the semifinals becomes far more difficult. Given the superior NRR of both Australia and New Zealand, India would rely on other favourable results and big-margin wins to improve their NRR and ensure progression. Historically, New Zealand and Australia have faced each other in 51 Women's T20Is since 2006. Australia has won 28 matches, while New Zealand has claimed 21 victories, making their head-to-head battle highly competitive.