T20 World Cup 2024 Qualification Scenarios: Pakistan, England, New Zealand And Sri Lanka In Danger Zone

We are halfway through the ICC Men's T20 World Cup 2024, and the competition is heating up for the Super Eight stage with 20 group stage matches remaining. Four strong teams, Pakistan, England, New Zealand, and Sri Lanka, are in a spot of bother due to upsets, surprises, and bad weather. Three of those teams Pakistan, England and Sri Lanka need other results to go in their favour. Oman is currently the only team out of contention for a Super 8 spot across all four groups. Here's how things stand after match 20 of the ICC Men's T20 World Cup 2024 between Scotland and Oman on June 9.

T20 World Cup 2024 qualification scenarios: Pakistan, England, New Zealand and Sri Lanka in danger zone

1. Pakistan Super Eight Qualification Scenario

Pakistan is on the brink of an early elimination from the ICC Men's T20 World Cup 2024 after losing to co-hosts USA and arch-rivals India by 6 runs in New York on Sunday, June 9. Babar Azam-led side experienced a major upset at the World Cup in Dallas, Texas on June 6. They lost in a Super Over against the USA. Three days later, they faced another setback with a defeat to India at the Nassau County International Cricket Stadium. India and co-hosts USA are in an excellent position to qualify for the Super 8 with just one more win, provided Canada also drops points. Pakistan's campaign is in tatters after two consecutive defeats. The only scenario that would allow them to advance is if they win against both Ireland and Canada and if the winner of the India vs USA game also wins their last match, while the loser of that match loses their last fixture. In this case, Pakistan would be tied on four points with one or more teams, and the Net Run Rate (NRR) would determine the outcome.

2. England Super Eight Qualification Scenario

England is currently 4th in the Group B points table with a Net Run Rate (NRR) of -1.800. They have two matches remaining against Oman on June 13 and Namibia on June 15. Scotland's NRR is +2.164, and they will face Australia in the final group match on June 16. Although England is in trouble now, they can still qualify for the Super Eights with a bit of help from Australia. Things can be interesting if Scotland loses to Australia and England beats both Namibia and Oman, which would mean both England and Scotland will be tied on five points each and come down to Net Run Rate. Scotland's NRR is +3.965 runs ahead of England's, a margin of almost 110 runs. If Scotland loses to Australia by 50 runs, England will need their combined victory margin against Namibia and Oman to be 59 runs to surpass them on NRR (assuming teams batting first score 160 each time).

3. New Zealand Super Eight Qualification Scenario

Group C, known as the "group of death," has lived up to its reputation. Despite playing only one game, New Zealand is in a precarious position due to a significant defeat. The Kiwis' best chance is to win all their remaining matches and hope for favourable results from other teams. Even if they achieve that, they will also need a good Net Run Rate (NRR) to surpass Afghanistan or West Indies, both of which are in good positions in the group. Though New Zealand has only played one game, the margin of defeat in that game has left them with little room for error. The best-case scenario for them is to win their three remaining matches and hope that Afghanistan gets the better of West Indies and then overtakes the latter on points. If New Zealand wins all three games, West Indies beats Afghanistan, and Afghanistan beats PNG, all three sides will be tied at six points each, with the Net Run Rate (NRR) being the decider.

4. Sri Lanka Super Eight Qualification Scenario

Sri Lanka still has a chance to advance to the Super 8 round of the T20 World Cup 2024, but their destiny is no longer entirely within their control. Sri Lanka is currently in the worst position in the group. The best-case scenario for them would be to beat both the Netherlands and Nepal, while South Africa remains unbeaten and Nepal beats Bangladesh. In that case, Sri Lanka will be tied on four points with the winner of the Netherlands vs Bangladesh contest and will have to rely on the NRR to advance. Another possible scenario in this group is if South Africa remains undefeated, finishing with eight points. In comparison, three other sides are tied on four points each, with either Sri Lanka or Nepal still winless.