World Test Championship 2025 final: What are India's chances to qualify for WTC final 2025?

India's 184-run defeat to Australia in the fourth Test at Melbourne has dealt a significant blow to their hopes of securing a spot in the ICC World Test Championship (WTC) 2023-25 final. With South Africa already clinching the first berth in the title clash, the competition for the remaining spot has intensified between India and Australia. However, following their recent setback, India’s chances of qualification are no longer in their control. The loss in Melbourne has pushed India to third place in the WTC standings with a points percentage (PCT) of 52.78, trailing Australia, who currently hold second place with a PCT of 61.46. This puts immense pressure on the Indian team as they head into their final match of this WTC cycle at the Sydney Cricket Ground, starting January 3, 2025.

Are India out of the race to qualify for the World Test Championship 2025 final?

Meanwhile, Australia has a relatively better position, with two remaining matches against Sri Lanka, giving them more opportunities to solidify their place in the final. For India to have any hope of progressing to the final, they must win their upcoming Test in Sydney and hope for favorable results in Australia’s matches. The task is a daunting one, as their fate now hinges on their performance and Australia’s ability to secure points in their remaining fixtures. The scenario sets the stage for a gripping conclusion to the WTC cycle, with both teams vying for a coveted spot in the final.

To keep their hopes alive for the ICC World Test Championship 2025 final, India, led by Rohit Sharma, face a must-win situation in the upcoming Sydney Test. A victory would level the Border-Gavaskar Trophy series at 2-2 and improve India’s points percentage to 55.26. While this would bolster their standings, it alone would not secure their place in the final.

India’s fate hinges not only on their performance but also on the outcome of Australia’s upcoming series against Sri Lanka. For India to qualify, Sri Lanka must defeat Australia 2-0 or 1-0 in the two-match series. Any other result—whether an Australian win or even a draw in either of the matches—would ensure Australia remains ahead of India in the WTC standings.

This precarious situation underlines the high stakes for India as they head into the Sydney clash. A victory would keep them in contention, but their final standing depends on Sri Lanka’s ability to deliver an upset against a strong Australian side. The complex qualification scenario ensures a dramatic finish to the WTC cycle, with India and Australia both battling for the coveted second spot in the final. India’s qualification hopes for the ICC World Test Championship 2023-25 final hinge on the outcome of the Sydney Test. A loss or a draw would spell the end of their campaign, leaving no path forward for the team. Should Australia clinch the series 3-1, their points percentage would soar to 63.73, while India’s would plummet to 50.00%, effectively eliminating them from the race for the second spot in the WTC standings.

Even if India manages to draw the series at 2-2, their fate would not be in their hands. Without significant help from Sri Lanka—who must defeat Australia either 2-0 or 1-0 in their upcoming series—India’s qualification hopes would still evaporate. A drawn series would only marginally improve India’s PCT, but it would not be sufficient to overtake Australia unless the latter suffers a major setback against Sri Lanka. The Sydney Test thus becomes a high-stakes encounter for the Rohit Sharma-led side. A victory is non-negotiable to keep their slim hopes alive, but even that outcome would not guarantee a spot in the WTC final without favorable results elsewhere. The pressure is immense as India fights to stay in contention in this tightly contested race.

India’s hopes of reaching the ICC World Test Championship final took a significant hit after a disappointing 3-0 home series loss to New Zealand earlier in the cycle. The campaign started on a high note in Australia, with a commanding 295-run victory in Perth showcasing their dominance. However, their momentum faltered as they suffered crucial defeats and missed opportunities. A hard-fought draw at the Gabba, where victory seemed within reach, further compounded their struggles. The recent loss in Melbourne has only added to their woes, leaving their path to the WTC final uncertain. Missed chances and inconsistency in key moments have overshadowed their initial promise. With their fate no longer in their hands, India now faces an uphill task, needing not just a win in Sydney but also favorable results elsewhere to keep their slim hopes of qualification alive.