Who will win La Liga title 2024/25? Predicting based on the next five games

The Premier League title race has almost become a one-horse race unless there is a dramatic fall of Liverpool and is getting chased down by Chelsea or Arsenal. With Manchester City struggling to get up with their opposition, it seems like Liverpooll’s year. But on the other hand, the Spanish top flight, La Liga has largely been a see-saw.

From Barcelona looking to run away with the title at one point with a six-point lead to now Atletico Madrid arriving at the scene from nowhere and leading the title race with a point ahead of the defending champions, Real Madrid. It will continue to be a great title race to be watched across the globe with Real Madrid fighting hard to defend. 

In this article, we shall look at who will win the La Liga title 2024/25 based on the next five games they will play in the Spanish top flight. 

1. Atletico Madrid 

The Rojiblancos continue to dominate the Spanish top flight in the ongoing season with 41 points from 18 games. They have conceded less than a goal per 90 minutes. They are a point above title-defending Real Madrid.

Their title aspirations will hinge on their next five fixtures in Spain. In between the five La Liga fixtures, they will feature in Copa del Rey and two Champions League fixtures. They sit 11th on the Champions League points table and would want to finish in the automatic qualification rather than the playoffs. Amidst these, they will be playing their five league fixtures. 

They will play Osasuna, Leganes, Villareal, Mallorca and fellow contenders Real Madrid. While the game against Los Blancos will be a six-pointer in the title race, the game against Villareal and Mallorca will decide the course of Atletico’s season as both sides are chasing Europe. Leganes would want to steer clear of the relegation zone whereas Osasuna will hope to break into the top ten with a win in these games. Atletico Madrid can potentially get up to 10 points out of a possible 15 in these fixtures considering there are no injury scars. 

2. Real Madrid 

Real Madrid are having a tough time in the Spanish top flight even if they are second on the points table. Their marquee signing, Kylian Mbappe has struggled to find the shooting boots, resulting in the overall attack hinging on Vinicius Jr and Rodrygo. In their last five games, they have just three wins and a draw. The loss against Athletic Club has affected their morale and have put them in second place on the table. A draw in that game would have placed them above their current league leaders. 

Los Blancos have a tight schedule during their next five La Liga games. They will be playing two cup games and two Champions League games. Not only will Real Madrid need to win both games but they also need a few games to go their way if they are to qualify for the knockouts instead of playoffs. 

In the Spanish top flight, they will play Valencia, Las Palmas, Valladolid, Espanyol, and the title contenders, Atletico Madrid. Valencia, Espanyol and Valladolid are battling relegation in the league and it is expected to brush them through at ease. However, the game against Atletico Madrid will be a six-pointer in the title race. Considering the form and fixture congestion, we can expect Real Madrid to register 11 points out of a possible 15 but to lower their GD in the league. 

3. Barcelona

At this point, it seems like Barcelona has fallen behind in the title race. They are three points behind the league leaders, having played an extra game. Their current form is concerning, as they have only one win and a draw in their last five games. The loss against Atletico Madrid has hurt them, putting them behind in the potential six-pointer game. 

Considering Atletico Madrid and Liverpool would have played 23 games at the end of their next five games, it is safe to assume that Catalans will play only four games as they have played an extra fixture. However, they have a fixture congestion with two cup fixtures and two Champions League games. With Barcelona almost qualified for the next round, they can focus on the Spanish top-flight fixtures. 

They will play Valencia, Getafe, Alaves, and Sevilla in their next four games. With Valencia battling relegation and the other three want to be safe from the relegation zone, those sides are expected to make life difficult for Barcelona. Off the next 12 points, we can expect Barcelona to take home 10 points. 

Final Bits: We can expect a close title race, boiling down to the final month of the season with Real Madrid expecting to clinch the title, considering the team's experience and ability to withstand pressure.